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There is a village that has five fortune tellers.
The first fortune teller's prediction has 80 % chance of being correct. The second has 62 % chance of being correct, the third 44 %, the fourth 31 %, and the fifth 7 %.
If you were trying to get the best prediction of your future, which fortune teller would you go to?
• first
• second
• third
• fourth
• fifth
Answer: fifth
Solution:
The fifth fortune teller would allow you to get the best prediction of your future.
The fifth fortune teller predicts with only 7 % accuracy. So, there is a 93 % chance of the fifth fortune teller being wrong.
If you consider the opposite of the fifth fortune teller's predictions, then you get the prediction of your future with 93 % accuracy. This is higher than the accuracy of the other four fortune tellers.
Try the Quiz : The Best Fortune Teller
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